With Ireland’s population expanding and policy targets rising sharply, clear facts on housing supply are essential for planners, investors and households alike. This article reveals the latest demand signals, supply out-turns, forward-looking indicators and policy benchmarks so you can act with confidence.
Demand Drivers – Population & Household Formation
Ireland’s demographic momentum underpins every housing discussion in 2025. The Central Statistics Office’s most recent Population and Migration Estimates from April 2024 include:
- Population: 5,380,300 residents as of April 2024, up 97,600 year-on-year (+1.9%)
- Net inward migration: +79,300 over the same period
- Dublin concentration: 1,534,900 people—28.5% of the national total
These demographic gains often translate into stronger demand for new homes, which we measure next through completed dwellings.
Supply Performance – Completions to Mid-2025
Completions indicate homes ready for occupation and are the CSO’s headline supply metric.
- Q1 2025: 5,938 new dwellings, +2% YoY; apartments +13% (1,781 units)
- Q2 2025: 9,214 completions, +35 % YoY; 3,053 were apartments (up 101%)
- H1 total: 15,152 units—9% ahead of H1 2024
- Regional share (H1): Dublin ~37%, Mid-East 19%
Take-away: Supply is accelerating, yet it remains below both forecast demand and Government targets outlined later.
To gauge future supply, we need to look further upstream at commencements and planning permissions.
Pipeline Indicators – Commencements & Planning
Commencement notices signal a developer’s intent to build; planning permissions approve the designs. Both are bell-wethers for completions 12–24 months out.
Commencements:
- 1,024 notices lodged in May 2025
- 41,178 dwellings on a rolling-12-month basis (Jun 2024–May 2025), -21.8% YoY
Planning permissions:
- 8,177 dwelling units approved in Q1 2025, -2.5% YoY
- Mix: 60% houses | 40% apartments
Take-away: The sharp drop in commencements—despite broadly stable planning grants—hints at financing or viability frictions that could cap completions in 2026 unless activity rebounds. Read more about Irish planning laws ->
2025 Completion Forecasts
Independent institutions publish rolling projections using CSO data and proprietary models. Their latest views:
- ESRI (Summer 2025): 33,000 completions
- Central Bank of Ireland (Quarterly Bulletin 2025: 2, 19 June): 32,500 completions
Take-away: Consensus clusters in the low-30-thousand range are below mid-40-thousand demand estimates.
Policy Benchmarks & Investment
Ireland’s two principal policy yardsticks are Housing for All and the revised National Planning Framework (NPF).
- Housing for All (2021): baseline need 33,000 homes annually (2021-2030)
- Revised NPF (Cabinet approval, Nov 2024): 50,500 homes per year from 2025, scaling to 60,000 by 2030
- State funding: €20 billion committed to housing to end-2025
Take-away: Even the higher Central Bank forecast (32,500) trails the 2025 NPF requirement by ≈18,000 units—underscoring the urgency of pipeline recovery. For a closer look at how changing ECB rates are influencing what buyers can afford, read our guide: How ECB Rate Shifts Affect Irish Mortgage Affordability.
Key Data of the 2025 YTD Irish Housing Supply Forecast
- Completions: 15,152 (H1)
- Forecast range: 32,500 – 33,000 homes
- Commencements: 41,178 notices (rolling-12-mth)
- Planning permissions: 8,177 units (Q1)
- Population: 5.38 m residents, net migration +79,300
Frequently Asked Questions
How does a commencement notice differ from a planning permission?
A planning permission is legal authorisation to build a specified design; a commencement notice is the builder’s notification that construction will begin within 28 days. Both are required, but only commencements carry a direct short-term signal for completions.
Why are apartment completions rising faster than houses?
Urban land constraints and policy incentives such as the Croí Cónaithe (Cities) scheme favour higher-density projects, leading to a doubling of apartment completions in Q2 2025 compared with a year earlier.
What happens if the NPF targets are missed?
Shortfalls widen the structural supply-demand gap, intensifying affordability pressures. Government may respond by revising investment, streamlining planning or expanding off-site construction—topics covered in Castlethorn’s Housing-for-All Explained resource.
Castlethorn: Turning Insight into Action
Completions are trending upward and could exceed 2024’s output by roughly 10%, yet Ireland is still on course to undershoot its own revised targets for 2025 with commencements down more than one-fifth.
With three decades of experience and more than 18,000 homes delivered to date, we pair data-driven planning with a steadfast commitment to quality, community and sustainability. Our Track Record showcases landmark neighbourhoods that have set new benchmarks for design and liveability, while Current Developments highlights energy-efficient schemes now under construction—each adding vital capacity to Ireland’s housing pipeline. Explore these pages to see how Castlethorn is advancing supply today and building the resilient communities of tomorrow.
Sources & Further Reading
- Central Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Bulletin 2025:2 – Slower pace of domestic growth amid trade tensions and global uncertainty
- Central Statistics Office, New Dwelling Completions Q1 2025
- Central Statistics Office, Planning Permissions Q1 2025
- Central Statistics Office, Population and Migration Estimates
- Department of Housing, Housing for All - A New Housing Plan for Ireland
- Department of Housing, Housing for All, Investment and Financing
- Department of Housing, May Commencements 2025
- Economic & Social Research Institute, Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2025
